Don’t Underestimate the Flu This Season

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This winter a virulent disease will spread across the country, killing an estimated 36,000 Americans. It's not a movie plot. It's not a terrorist conspiracy.

It's flu season.

Simultaneously ignored and incorrectly blamed for every little wintertime cough and cold, influenza leads an odd sort of double life. We know it's common. Most people know it can be dangerous. And yet, most of us don't take it seriously—at least, not seriously enough to get vaccinated against it.

"Most people are blissfully unaware of the annual death toll," says Dr. Gregory Poland, professor of medicine and director of the Mayo Clinic’s vaccine research group. "We blow off influenza."

And Dr. Poland says that's a problem—particularly in 2007, as experts are predicting that the upcoming flu season might be a little worse than those of the past few years. Why? And how can we even predict something like that? Those are just two of the flu facts you need to know.

Flu Fact 1: Every year is different

Influenza is the chameleon of viruses: It never stays the same for long. Constant mutations mean that there are millions of different types and sub-types of influenza virus. Luckily, most of those aren't very good at infecting humans. But the ever-changing nature of the flu means that, unlike measles or mumps, you can't just give a person a one-time vaccine that protects them throughout their entire lives.

Every flu season, a different collection of strains rises to prominence. However, Poland says that, from about 2003 to 2006, the most common strain was the same—a virus known as influenza A/New Caledonia, after the place it was first identified. But this year, A/New Caledonia won't be much of a problem. Instead we'll probably be facing influenza A/Solomon Islands. And that means that all the immunity we've built up over the years to A/New Caledonia—both from vaccines and from actually catching it—won’t matter anymore. "Not a lot of people have come into contact with Solomon Islands yet so it will probably cause a lot more illness," Poland says.

Flu Fact 2: Flu season predictions are usually correct

It may surprise you, but it makes sense. After all, it's not like the Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization are relying on a Magic 8 Ball or something. CDC spokesman Curtis Allen says that his organization, along with the WHO and the FDA, study flu cases from around the world—particularly in the southern hemisphere, which has its flu season during our summer. He says that the common strains in the southern hemisphere will usually crop up here the following winter. That information is used to help decide what three strains that year’s vaccine will cover.

"You can never make a 100 percent prediction," Allen says. "But for the most part, we're pretty accurate." In fact, Poland says that the estimates are only wrong about once every 15 years or so.

Flu Fact 3: Everyone should get vaccinated

You usually hear that the flu vaccine is primarily for people over the age of 50, pregnant women, small children older than six months, and anyone with a chronic health condition. But the CDC's Curtis Allen says that, while all those people should definitely be getting the shot, the vaccine is really for anybody who wants it. "We've had vaccine shortages in the past, but we anticipate having 132 million doses this year. That's more vaccine than ever before," he says.

Poland goes even further. He thinks everyone ought to get the vaccine, whether they think they need it or not. He says that more people getting the vaccine means fewer people dying each year, well worth the slight inconvenience of a trip to the doctor. Besides which, this years' vaccine may protect you against scarier versions of the flu currently lurking in the public imagination. "One of the vaccine's components is the H1N1 strain, which is a distant cousin of H5N1, aka the bird flu," he says. "Recent animal studies have shown that the annual vaccine generates antibodies that might be protective against H5N1 as well."

And, rest assured: The flu vaccine is safe. "You cannot get influenza from the vaccine—that’s a myth," Allen says. Vaccinated people may still get sick, he says, but it's usually because they caught a strain of flu that wasn't in the vaccine or they're calling something "the flu" that isn't. It can also take up to two weeks for the vaccine to take effect. During that time, it's still possible to catch the vaccine strains, which might lead you to think that you got the virus from the vaccine itself.

Flu Fact 4: Your health care worker probably isn't vaccinated

Of all the people who should be vaccinated, you'd think health care workers would be first in line. Unfortunately, Poland and Allen admit, they aren't.

"Only about 40 percent of health care workers take it," Poland says. "When you look at the elderly, the very young, and the immunity-compromised—the people most likely to die—they’re largely being taken care of by un-immunized medical staff."

Worse, Poland says that the medical professionals with the lowest vaccination rate are nurses—the people who have the most close contact with at-risk patients. However, there is an increasing movement to change those statistics, he says: "Seven states now have legislation requiring health care workers to get the flu vaccine."

Nonetheless, if you or a family member is in the highest risk groups, you should ask your doctor about the vaccination policy at their office or clinic before you go in for a visit.