History Says Avoid Virus Hysteria

In April 2003, the world seemed on the brink of a killer pandemic.

After simmering for months in Guangdong, China, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus had exploded in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, Canada, the U.S. and 14 other countries. It had a seriously scary fatality rate of 10 percent.

But as quickly as it came, it just as quickly faded away. The virus turned out not to be as contagious as feared. To date, the World Health Organization estimates that 774 people died from SARS. Most of the deaths occurred in Hong Kong and other areas in Southern China--where officials let the outbreak fester too long without taking steps to contain it.

Here in the U.S. there were only eight reported SARS cases, all nonfatal.

SARS was scary, for sure. But it affected only a specific region. And the deaths were mostly to blame on incompetent public health officials.

This history is something to keep in mind in the coming weeks as the swine flu outbreak, which is suspected of causing more than 100 deaths in Mexico, unfolds. While there have been a small number of cases in the United States, almost all of them have been mild, and there have been no deaths. And it is not clear whether there ever will be a significant number of deaths.

Hysteria and exotic-sounding disease outbreaks go hand in hand. Whether it's anthrax, mad cow disease, foot-and-mouth disease, bird flu or, going back to the 1990s, ebola—news of an outbreak generates fear that's disproportionate to the risk of catching the disease. In each of these cases deaths, if they occurred at all, were minimal.

During the SARS episode, the U.S. quickly cranked itself into full freakout mode. Each of the eight U.S. patients who contracted SARS had picked up the disease in Asia, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Yet travelers donned face masks no matter where they were flying. Pedestrians in U.S. cities followed suit. Families canceled vacations. Shoppers and diners avoided Chinatowns and Chinese restaurants like they were leper colonies. Companies scaled back their business in Asia, and then blamed bad financial results on SARS.

Cable news channels and other media sensationalized the outbreak as if it were a Hollywood movie—a real-life sequel to Dustin Hoffman's 1995 hit Outbreak. A medical historian at the University of Toronto, Edward Shorter, watched what was going on and called the phenomenon "mass psychosis."

Meanwhile, that year--and in every year this decade—between 30,000 and 50,000 American deaths were recorded from complications related to the seasonal flu. Another 40,000 people died in automobile accidents. And each year, gunshot wounds account for 30,000 deaths, around 4,000 people drown while swimming or boating and 60 people die from lightning strikes.

"The public is driven by irrational fears. They didn't go to medical school," says Shorter. "They're responding to an abdication of leadership by political leaders."

So far, the U.S. has responded to the swine flu with restraint. President Obama said the problem is a "cause for concern" and "not a cause for alarm." And the declaration of a public health emergency is not quite as scary as it sounds. It is an important precautionary measure, like declaring a state of emergency in Florida because a hurricane may or may not hit. But Russia banned pork imports from Mexico. And Hong Kong has said it won't accept flights from Mexico. "That's irrational, except to whip up public sentiment against the Mexicans," Shorter says.

The American public—and the news media—was captivated for an entire weekend by the prospect of a swine flu crossing our border. Is it the beginning of the next pandemic? Will the U.S. State Department ban travel to Mexico? Will the border be sealed? Will San Diego be next?

Let the public health officials make these decisions, Shorter recommends. No matter how virulent an outbreak seems at the beginning, public health departments will react aggressively. That's their job—better safe than sorry—and that's how epidemics are contained. But everyone else should learn to relax.